Year
Month
(Preprint) Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective
Zhouwang Yang 杨周旺 ¹, Yunhe Hu 胡云鹤 ¹, Zhiwei Ding 丁志伟 ¹, Tiande Guo 郭田德 ²
¹ University of Science and Technology of China
中国科学技术大学
² University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
中国科学院大学
ChinaXiv, 2021-09-22
Abstract

In the early days of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to insufficient
knowledge of the pandemic, inadequate nucleic acid tests, lack of timely data reporting, etc., the origin time of the onset of COVID-19 is difficult to determine. Therefore, source tracing is crucial for infectious disease prevention and control. The purpose of this paper is to infer the origin time of pandemic of COVID-19 based on a data and model hybrid driven method.

We model the testing positive rate to fit its actual trend, and use the least squares estimation toobtain the optimal model parameters. Further, the kernel density estimation is applied to infer the origin time of pandemic given the specific confidence probability.

By selecting 12 representative regions in the United States for analysis, the dates of the first
infected case with 50% confidence probability are mostly between August and October 2019, which are earlier than the officially announced date of the first confirmed case in the United States on January 20, 2020. The experimental results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States starts to spread around September 2019 with a high confidence probability.

In addition, the existing confirmed cases are also used in Wuhan City and Zhejiang Province in China to infer the origin time of COVID-19 and provide the confidence probability. The results show that the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in China is likely to begin in late December 2019.
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_1
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_2
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_3
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_4
  • Dynamic interactive bitwise meta-holography with ultra-high computational and display frame rates
  • Yuncheng Liu, Ke Xu, Xuhao Fan, Xinger Wang, Xuan Yu, Wei Xiong, Hui Gao
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2024-01-25
  • Multi-dimensional multiplexing optical secret sharing framework with cascaded liquid crystal holograms
  • Keyao Li, Yiming Wang, Dapu Pi, Baoli Li, Haitao Luan, Xinyuan Fang, Peng Chen, Yanqing Lu, Min Gu
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2024-01-25
  • Physics-informed deep learning for fringe pattern analysis
  • Wei Yin, Yuxuan Che, Xinsheng Li, Mingyu Li, Yan Hu, Shijie Feng, Edmund Y. Lam, Qian Chen, Chao Zuo
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2024-01-25
  • Advancing computer-generated holographic display thanks to diffraction model-driven deep nets
  • Vittorio Bianco, Pietro Ferraro
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2024-01-16
  • Inverse design for material anisotropy and its application for a compact X-cut TFLN on-chip wavelength demultiplexer
  • Jiangbo Lyu, Tao Zhu, Yan Zhou, Zhenmin Chen, Yazhi Pi, Zhengtong Liu, Xiaochuan Xu, Ke Xu, Xu Ma, Lei Wang, Zizheng Cao, Shaohua Yu
  • Opto-Electronic Science
  • 2024-01-09
  • Improved spatiotemporal resolution of anti-scattering super-resolution label-free microscopy via synthetic wave 3D metalens imaging
  • Yuting Xiao, Lianwei Chen, Mingbo Pu, Mingfeng Xu, Qi Zhang, Yinghui Guo, Tianqu Chen, Xiangang Luo
  • Opto-Electronic Science
  • 2024-01-05
  • Wide-spectrum optical synthetic aperture imaging via spatial intensity interferometry
  • Chunyan Chu, Zhentao Liu, Mingliang Chen, Xuehui Shao, Guohai Situ, Yuejin Zhao, Shensheng Han
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2023-3-10
  • Flat soliton microcomb source
  • Xinyu Wang, Xuke Qiu, Mulong Liu, Feng Liu, Mengmeng Li, Linpei Xue, Bohan Chen, Mingran Zhang, Peng Xie
  • Opto-Electronic Science
  • 2023-12-29
  • Smart palm-size optofluidic hematology analyzer for automated imaging-based leukocyte concentration detection
  • Deer Su, Xiangyu Li, Weida Gao, Qiuhua Wei, Haoyu Li, Changliang Guo, Weisong Zhao
  • Opto-Electronic Science
  • 2023-12-28
  • Exceptional-point-enhanced sensing in an all-fiber bending sensor
  • Zheng Li, Jingxu Chen, Lingzhi Li, Jiejun Zhang, Jianping Yao
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2023-12-12
  • All-optical object identification and three-dimensional reconstruction based on optical computing metasurface
  • Dingyu Xu, Wenhao Xu, Qiang Yang, Wenshuai Zhang, Shuangchun Wen, Hailu Luo,
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2023-12-12



  • Cell-free chemoenzymatic starch synthesis from carbon dioxide                                Self-energy dynamics and mode-specific phonon threshold effect in a Kekulé-ordered graphene
    About
    |
    Contact
    |
    Copyright © PubCard