Year
Month
(Preprint) Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective
Zhouwang Yang 杨周旺 ¹, Yunhe Hu 胡云鹤 ¹, Zhiwei Ding 丁志伟 ¹, Tiande Guo 郭田德 ²
¹ University of Science and Technology of China
中国科学技术大学
² University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
中国科学院大学
ChinaXiv, 2021-09-22
Abstract

In the early days of the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to insufficient
knowledge of the pandemic, inadequate nucleic acid tests, lack of timely data reporting, etc., the origin time of the onset of COVID-19 is difficult to determine. Therefore, source tracing is crucial for infectious disease prevention and control. The purpose of this paper is to infer the origin time of pandemic of COVID-19 based on a data and model hybrid driven method.

We model the testing positive rate to fit its actual trend, and use the least squares estimation toobtain the optimal model parameters. Further, the kernel density estimation is applied to infer the origin time of pandemic given the specific confidence probability.

By selecting 12 representative regions in the United States for analysis, the dates of the first
infected case with 50% confidence probability are mostly between August and October 2019, which are earlier than the officially announced date of the first confirmed case in the United States on January 20, 2020. The experimental results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States starts to spread around September 2019 with a high confidence probability.

In addition, the existing confirmed cases are also used in Wuhan City and Zhejiang Province in China to infer the origin time of COVID-19 and provide the confidence probability. The results show that the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in China is likely to begin in late December 2019.
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_1
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_2
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_3
Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective_4
  • Power grid fault diagnosis based on a deep pyramid convolutional neural network
  • Xu Zhang 张旭, Huiting Zhang, Dongying Zhang, Yixian Wang, Ruiting Ding, Yuchuan Zheng, Yongxu Zhang
  • CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems
  • 2022-05-06
  • China's factor reallocation effect considering energy
  • Guangqing Xu, Xiaoyu Chen
  • Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment
  • 2022-05-02
  • Cannabidiol prevents depressive-like behaviors through the modulation of neural stem cell differentiation
  • Ming Hou, Suji Wang, Dandan Yu, Xinyi Lu, Xiansen Zhao, Zhangpeng Chen, Chao Yan
  • Frontiers of Medicine
  • 2022-04-26
  • Cultivation of gut microorganisms of the marine ascidian Halocynthia roretzi reveals their potential roles in the environmental adaptation of their host
  • Yang Yang, Yuting Zhu, Haiming Liu, Jiankai Wei, Haiyan Yu, Bo Dong
  • Marine Life Science & Technology
  • 2022-04-26
  • Data network traffic analysis and optimization strategy of real-time power grid dynamic monitoring system for wide-frequency measurements
  • Jinsong Li, Hao Liu, Wenzhuo Li, Tianshu Bi, Mingyang Zhao
  • Global Energy Interconnection
  • 2022-04-25
  • Field distribution of the Z₂ topological edge state revealed by cathodoluminescence nanoscopy
  • Xiao He, Donglin Liu, Hongfei Wang, Liheng Zheng, Bo Xu, Biye Xie, Meiling Jiang, Zhixin Liu, Jin Zhang, Minghui Lu, Zheyu Fang
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2022-04-25
  • Advances in femtosecond laser direct writing of fiber Bragg gratings in multicore fibers: technology, sensor and laser applications
  • Alexey Wolf, Alexander Dostovalov, Kirill Bronnikov, Mikhail Skvortsov, Stefan Wabnitz, Sergey Babin
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2022-04-25
  • Graphene-empowered dynamic metasurfaces and metadevices
  • Chao Zeng, Hua Lu, Dong Mao, Yueqing Du, He Hua, Wei Zhao, Jianlin Zhao
  • Opto-Electronic Advances
  • 2022-04-25
  • Charge carrier dynamics in different crystal phases of CH₃NH₃PbI₃ perovskite
  • Efthymis Serpetzoglou, Ioannis Konidakis, George Kourmoulakis, Ioanna Demeridou, Konstantinos Chatzimanolis, Christos Zervos, George Kioseoglou, Emmanuel Kymakis, Emmanuel Stratakis
  • Opto-Electronic Science
  • 2022-04-21
  • Applications of optically and electrically driven nanoscale bowtie antennas
  • Zhongjun Jiang, Yingjian Liu, Liang Wang
  • Opto-Electronic Science
  • 2022-04-20
  • Validation of the bodily expressive action stimulus test among Chinese adults and children
  • Yunmei Yang, Wenwen Hou, Jing Li
  • PsyCh Journal
  • 2022-04-17



  • Cell-free chemoenzymatic starch synthesis from carbon dioxide                                Self-energy dynamics and mode-specific phonon threshold effect in a Kekulé-ordered graphene
    About
    |
    Contact
    |
    Copyright © PubCard